Operation Risk Assessment of Power System with High Proportion of New Energy Integration

With the characteristics of uncertainty and strong randomness, the grid connection of wind power and photovoltaic units makes it difficult to predict the operation output of power system, so it is more and more important to evaluate the operation risk of power system with high proportion of new energy units. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment method combining extended Nataf inverse transform and three-point estimation method to evaluate the system risk value. Firstly, the output model of new energy units and loads is summarized. Secondly, according to the possible problems in the system operation, the risk index for evaluating the system operation risk is put forward. Finally, the three-point evaluation method based on extended Nataf inverse transformation is applied to test and analyze the risk indicators, and the proposed method is verified by IEEE-33 bus system. The research results show that the three-point method based on extended Nataf inverse transformation is more efficient and the calculation method is superior than Monte Carlo method and traditional Nataf transformation. By changing the grid-connected location and grid-connected capacity of new energy units, the operation risk of power system under different working conditions is analyzed, and the results can provide feasible ideas and references for power system operation and planning.