Sales forecasting for life insurance on primary and supplementary policies using seasonal and trend methods

Sales of insurance are collected monthly or yearly as statistics which most insurance companies haven’t estimated the sales for the next year. The current sales of insurance make it difficult to evaluate the market and organize various campaigns for customers. Therefore, this research has collected sales of life insurance from the website of the Office of Insurance Commission from the year 2018 - 2022. The forecasting of sales for life insurance using 4 forecasting methods which are Holt Winters' Additive, Holt Winters' Multiplicative, Simple Exponential Smoothing, and Double Exponential Smoothing. These forecasting methods are used to forecast insurance premiums one year ahead from the year 2021. The computation of total sales for 3 insurance types which are Primary-General, Primary, and Additional found that the Holt Winters' Multiplicative method is the best forecasting method with an accuracy percentage for forecasting methods of 97.56%.