Quantifying and Predicting Residential Building Flexibility Using Machine Learning Methods

Residential buildings account for a significant portion (35%) of the total electricity consumption in the U.S. as of 2022. As more distributed energy resources are installed in buildings, their potential to provide flexibility to the grid increases. To tap into that flexibility provided by buildings, aggregators or system operators need to quantify and forecast flexibility. Previous works in this area primarily focused on commercial buildings, with little work on residential buildings. To address the gap, this paper first proposes two complementary flexibility metrics (i.e., power and energy flexibility) and then investigates several mainstream machine learning-based models for predicting the time-variant and sporadic flexibility of residential buildings at four-hour and 24-hour prediction horizons. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model achieves the best performance and can predict power flexibility for up to 24 hours ahead with an average error of around 0.7 k W. However, for energy flexibility, the LSTM model is only successful for loads with consistent operational patterns throughout the year and faces challenges when predicting energy flexibility associated with HVAC systems.