Generation System Reliability Evaluation Considering Time-Varying Wind Speeds Based on Markov Chain

Traditional power generation methods, such as thermal power and nuclear power, can provide stable and reliable power to the load. With the increasing maturity of new energy generation technologies, more and more renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power generation, have been incorporated into the power grid. However, compared with traditional energy sources, one of the characteristics of renewable energy is uncertainty. For wind turbine generator (WTG), the change of wind speed is the main factor leading to the change of their output power. Uncertain wind power output will reduce the reliability of the power system into which wind power is integrated and increase the system operation cost, so it is necessary to study the reliability of wind power. In this paper, the reliability of a power system containing different percentages of wind turbines is evaluated by establishing a forced outage rate (FOR) for wind turbines, taking into account wind turbine mechanical failure factors and wind speed. The study proposes a simple reliability assessment method that can be used in the planning stage of power systems.