Stochastic Modeling of a Residential PV Plant Operation

Increasing penetration of small renewable sources, especially in residential areas, brings significant challenges to the safe and reliable operation of distribution networks. PV plants are the prevailing type of sources installed on residential buildings. The power output of a PV plant is strongly dependent on actual meteorological conditions, that have naturally stochastic character. However, most methods currently used for feasibility studies and analysis of operating conditions in networks with renewable sources do not respect this stochastic nature, resulting in inaccurate or over-conservative results. This paper introduces a method for stochastic modeling of a residential PV plant's power output, allowing a more objective evaluation of network conditions in low-voltage distribution networks. The paper also discusses the main factors influencing the accuracy of the method and defines basic requirements for the quality of input data.