Towards Some Aspects of Forecasting the Risk Potential of NPP Processes: Model Selection (Using the Example of Cooling Water Heating Forecast)

The article is devoted to the issue of choosing a forecast model of a technological process parameter to forecast the risk potential of the technological process of a nuclear power plant unit using the example of one of the parameters of the information task “Calculation of technical and economic indicators” of the upper-level control system of the instrumentation and control systems of a nuclear power plant (NPP) - cooling water heating. In the modern world, where technological processes cover all spheres of life, such forecasting plays a huge role. It allows you to identify possible threats and assess their likelihood and potential consequences, allowing you to take preventive measures and develop risk management strategies. This helps to minimize possible losses. Calculation, forecasting, and analysis of technical and economic indicators of NPP power units are of great importance to ensure their safe and efficient operation. The article provides an overview of the types of forecast models that can be used to solve the problem and their disadvantages. A comparison was made of the developed models for forecasting the heating of cooling water in the condenser of a nuclear power plant with a VVER-1000 reactor.