Analysis of the Impact of Photovoltaic and Thermal Power Generation on Area Prices by Propensity Scores

Electricity prices have been rising in Japan in recent years, and dependence on thermal power generation has been cited as one of the reasons. As a countermeasure to this problem, coupled with the recent movement toward decarbonization, there is a movement to promote the introduction of renewable energy, including photovoltaic power generation, whose prices have fallen in recent years. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively understand the causal relationship of the impact of photovoltaic and thermal power generation on electricity prices by conducting a causal inference analysis using propensity scores. As a result, increasing photovoltaic power generation was confirmed to have the effect of lowering area prices in two power service areas. On the other hand, it was confirmed that thermal power generation has the effect of increasing area prices in two power service areas.