Research on POY Purchasing Strategy Based on ARFIMA Model Price Prediction

Because the upstream suppliers of polyester yarn (POY) belong to oligopoly enterprises, the bargaining power of middle and downstream enterprises is low, coupled with the impact of the epidemic and the turmoil of the international situation, the price of POY is constantly fluctuating, which has a greater impact on the procurement cost of warp knitting manufacturers. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to predict the price change of POY, forecast the demand of enterprises and formulate the optimal procurement plan, which can effectively reduce the total cost of enterprises and enable enterprises to develop steadily and healthily. In this paper, a time series model is adopted, taking POY prices from 2016 to 2020 as samples, and the price of POY in 2021 is forecasted and analyzed, while AUTOARIMA is used to determine the optimal ARIMA model parameters. The POY price trend in 2021 is predicted according to the model, and then the production demand of the enterprise is predicted. With the lowest comprehensive procurement cost as the decision-making purpose, the procurement time node arrangement and procurement quantity allocation are completed respectively, and the corresponding strategic procurement plan is formulated to provide reference for the enterprise to formulate the optimal material procurement strategy.