Efficiency Analysis of Solar Energy in Jilin Province Considering Uncertainty Factors

Solar energy, as a new type of green and clean energy, is one of the important technologies for achieving carbon neutrality in China. However, due to various factors such as season and weather conditions, there is a strong degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty will have a significant impact on the existing power system, and if it cannot be accurately predicted, it will seriously affect the construction process of the new energy system. In response to the specific situation of new energy construction in Jilin Province, this article proposes a solar energy efficiency prediction method that considers uncertainty factors. Firstly, COMSOL commercial electromagnetic simulation software is applied to achieve energy efficiency analysis of the construction process of a full life disc solar thermal power plant. Secondly, this article conducts a comparative analysis of energy efficiency based on the annual lighting conditions in different regions. Finally, the joint simulation technology of COMSOL and MATLAB is implemented, and Stochastic Collocation Method is introduced into energy efficiency analysis, aiming to achieve efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification calculations. This article focuses on the research method of constructing numerical models of basic solar components to accurately simulate the uncertainty of solar efficiency, which is an important fundamental theoretical research. The analysis of simulation results can help guide the construction process of new energy systems related to solar energy.