Certainty or Intelligence: Pick One!

Mathematical models can yield certainty, as can probabilistic models where the probabilities degenerate. The field of formal methods emphasizes developing such certainty about engineering designs. In safety critical systems, such certainty is highly valued and, in some cases, even required by regulatory bodies. But achieving reasonable performance for sufficiently complex environments appears to require the use of AI technologies, which resist such certainty. This extended abstract suggests that certainty and intelligence may be fundamentally incompatible.