Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Considering Source-load Uncertainty

Under the background of the "dual carbon" goal, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network(DN) is of great value to improve the operational performance of DN and promote the construction of a new DN with high permeability. In this paper, a reliability evaluation strategy of DN considering source-load uncertainty is proposed. Firstly, the operation scenarios are reduced by clustering, and the source-load uncertainty problem is transformed into typical operation scenarios of DN. Secondly, reliability evaluation indexes were established, and the dynamic characteristics of photovoltaic(PV) output and load are comprehensively considered. The reliability evaluation strategy of "scenario + special moment" is proposed based on the hybrid method combining the sequential Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method and the Minimum Path(MP) method. Finally, the reliability of DN under different scenarios and special moments is evaluated through a simulation example, and the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed strategy are verified.