Assessing Current and Future Land Subsidence Risk Induced by Groundwater Exploitation in Italy Using Earth Observation

Earth observation data and advanced modeling are used in this work to generate products and tools aiming to enhance the understanding of subsidence risk in major urban areas of Italy, towards sustainable use of groundwater resources and urban development. A multi-scale methodology is designed to assess present-day subsidence risk using satellite-based ground deformation observations, hydrogeological, topographic and land use data, and to identify subsidence hotspots and drivers using geostatistics. Advanced numerical modelling coupling 3D transient groundwater flow and geomechanics enables quantification of the effects of groundwater usage to land deformation. Future subsidence risk under climate change scenarios, demographic and urban development, is assessed by adapting the advanced model. Market and non-market direct/indirect losses are quantified via a bespoke socio-economic impact analysis.