Evaluating the Implications of Regional Variability Under Proposed Policy Targets to Understand Its Impact on the Dynamics of Electric Vehicle (EV) Ownership

To boost electric vehicle (EV) ownership, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is setting standards to reduce carbon emissions propelling car companies to adjust their plans for their future car stock. With targets like 50% of all car sales should be electric by 2030 and 67% by 2032 nationally. Furthermore, regulations like the Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) are being adopted by states like Virginia. Aiming for zero emission vehicle sales of 35% by 2026, states are delineating plans to meet these targets. This analysis focuses on a comparison of car registration behavior from the last decade in the state of Virginia and its demographic regions. Using a collection of historical data that includes EV registrations and total registrations in the state of Virginia, regional time series forecasts using a seasonal exponential and Winters additive methods were obtained. Virginia’s biggest contributor to EV growth was the Northern region, while the Eastern region contributed the least to Virginia’s EV growth. A linear relationship between the EV registration growth and EV sales was drawn to project a percentage of sales for 2026, which resulted in between 14.27-14.46%. Thus, the differences between regions’ EV registration growth rate emphasized the need for implementation of policy targets that better address the regional variability.