The Next Wave: Buoy Arrays for Deterministic Wave Prediction in Real-time

This work uses sparse arrays of ocean wave buoys to create a linear reconstruction of the sea surface and provide deterministic wave predictions at a future time and nearby position (i.e., within a few wavelengths). The predictions are constrained to be within the statistics of recently observed waves. This recently established method is applied in post-processing at two distinct projects related to 1) a wave energy converter and 2) an offshore wind platform. The conditions range from scale-model tank testing to an operational open-ocean wind farm. Relative to a conventional statistical forecasting with random waves, the method achieves at least 60% improvement in prescribing the next several waves arriving at a given target location. Work is ongoing to implement this method in realtime, using radio modems to transmit raw motion data (5 Hz sampling) from the buoy array to a central node that continually updates a 30-second prediction window with less than 1-second latency. The deterministic wave predictions can be used to improve control strategies for platforms at sea, with improvements in efficiency and reductions in dynamic loads.