Forecasting by Using the Bayesian Belief Network of the Activation and Probable Consequences of Hazardous Natural Processes

The article proposes to model complex natural processes and forecast their catastrophic consequences using the Bayesian belief network. The most significant factors that affect the activation of natural processes leading to catastrophic consequences are considered. It also reviews factors that can contribute to activation, but under certain additional conditions. A probabilistic model is built based on the Bayesian belief network, modeling is carried out. Various scenarios of complex natural processes with catastrophic consequences are considered. A control factor is proposed that affects the natural system and has a deterrent effect. The cyclical nature of the activation of natural processes associated with the solar activity is revealed.