Leveraging Economies of Scale and Gains from Specialization for Robust Crewed Mars Architectures

The landscape of human Mars missions is being revolutionized by advancements in reusable space systems, prompting a shift from conventional, small-scale architectures to larger, more sustainable mission concepts. This study explores the potential of larger, multi-site Mars architectures, underpinned by increased crew sizes and longer mission durations, enabled by the growing capabilities in mass to orbit and mass manufacturing. The primary focus is on transforming crew size from a constraint to the central design variable, exploring how larger crews can enhance mission value, robustness, and potential for organic growth. The research employs a high-resolution crew time model based on 533 activities, accounting for economies of scale, specialization, and learning effects in estimating time demands for various mission aspects. A novel architecture screening model integrates this crew time model with sub-models for mission elements like food production and habitat construction, all influenced by crew size and surface endurance. A key aspect of this research is the development of new metrics, such as the Lifecycle Cost per Non-Logistics Full Time Equivalent person on Mars per year and the Robustness Composite Indicator (ROCI), to evaluate architectures ranging from 4 to 63 crew members for up to 10 years. This approach led to the identification of dual-site designs with 30 to 42 crew members as optimal in terms of affordability, mission value, robustness, and growth potential. Additionally, the study introduces a novel Figure of Merit - the Lifetime Embodied Energy per Mission-Value Full Time Equivalent person on Mars per year - offering a neutral valuation of human exploration technology portfolios across varying mission scales and strategies. This comprehensive evaluation includes agent response to contingencies, productivity gains from specialization, and the impacts of scale on mission effectiveness. The culmination of this work is the proposal of a NASA-led, 36-crew, 10-year mission named ‘Pale Red Dot’, demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of large-scale Mars missions. This mission, fitting within NASA’s current deep space exploration budget with an average annual cost of $3.1b and peaking at $7b in the mid-2030s, highlights the shift in focus from mass to crew time in human spaceflight. An Affordability study modeled potential national Deep Space Exploration budgets and found that NASA could lead a 21-nation Artemis Accords 36-crew mission to Mars, with 8 NASA astronauts and an annual cost of no more than $873M per year. The methodology and findings support the study of larger Mars missions and contribute to future work on Mars analog missions to understand factors like crew productivity that vary with mission scale. The ‘Pale Red Dot’ mission, awarded ’Best in Theme’ and ’First Place Overall’ at the 2023 NASA RASC-AL Forum, exemplifies the potential for safe, efficient, and autocatalytic architectures, paving the way for missions that support organic growth towards Earth independence.