Probability Theory Analysis of Current Load Curve

Summary

This Chapter explains the probability meanings of current load duration curve, load factor, and minimum load rate; introduces Barth Formula representing the relationship among loss factor, variance current, and load factor in the 1960s; describes the derivation of two types of Rossander loss factor formulas by using: (i) distribution functional integration in the probability theory and (ii) the exponential approximate formula of load duration curve as put forward by the German scholar Rossander in the early twentieth century, and determines application conditions of the two formulas; sets forth the derivation of the error distribution of large sample test on six loss factor formulas by using: (i) the prepared procedures and (ii) the random load curve produced by the Monte Carlo method, and identifies through comparison that the loss factor formula derived by Chinese scholar Liu Yingkuan using the subsection integration method is the optimal and is applied throughout this book; and introduces the “multiplying probability assumption” used for calculating the “expected time” in the PERT method put forward in the United States in the 1960s. The author realizes the sectional division of minimum mode, normal mode, and maximum mode on the basis of load duration square curve, providing new solutions to complicated problems such as the calculation and prediction of line losses in a long period, and the design of time of use electricity price.