Prediction Method for Transmission Line Fault Probability under Ice Disasters by Modified BPNN

As a vital component of the power system, the safe and reliable operation of the transmission system is a crucial guarantee for stable electricity delivery. As the frequency of extreme weather conditions increases gradually, the secure operation of the transmission system faces significant challenges. Enhancing the resilience of the power system during extreme natural disasters has become a hot research topic. This paper focuses on studying the impact of ice disasters on transmission lines and presents a method for predicting the fault probability of transmission lines, namely the HFAPSO-BPNN prediction model. This method offers faster computation speed compared to traditional model-driven fault rate calculation methods and plays a pivotal role in addressing the resilience of the power system. Finally, through two sets of simulation experiments, the paper confirms the advantages of the proposed method in terms of predictive accuracy and speed.