Improved Backward Scenario Reduction Method for Generation Planning Considering Extreme Scenarios

Renewable energy sources exhibit significant variability and uncertainty, showing numerous distinct scenarios. In the context of generation planning, it's imperative to employ scenario reduction techniques to select representative scenarios that capture the characteristics of renewable energy outputs. However, traditional scenario reduction methods often fail to adequately preserve the extreme output scenarios of these renewables. This paper improves the simultaneous backward reduction method (SBR), enhancing its capability to effectively capture the extreme output scenarios of renewable sources. As a result, the generation planning becomes more economically viable and more reliable. The efficacy of the improved SBR method is demonstrated using data from the Qinhuangdao region in China.