Research on Modeling Method of New Energy Generation about Randomness

It's significance to establish a rational model of the randomness of new energy power for the analysis and control of new energy power system. One way to realize the probability prediction of new energy power generation is to model and quantify the probability distribution of prediction error based on the deterministic prediction results. Based on Itô process model, this paper describes the stochastic characteristics of new energy power in the form of stochastic differential equation. Firstly, the model based method is used to construct Itô process parameters under the condition of given statistical model, and the probability distribution of prediction object is obtained by superimposing the probability distribution of prediction error on the deterministic prediction results. Secondly, the method based on historical data is used to estimate the Itô process parameters with the maximum likelihood value given the historical data. Finally, a numerical example proves that Itô process is practical in describing the randomness of new energy sources.