Research on the Proportion of New Energy Included into Power System Balance Based on Statistical Characteristics

Incorporating new energy sources into the power system's reserve is of great significance for the safe operation of the power grid and the full utilization of new energy resources. However, practical issues such as the unpredictability and randomness of new energy sources constrain their reliability as reserve power sources. This paper analyzes and studies the theoretical and actual power output of wind, solar, and other new energy sources under historical scenarios, as well as the statistical characteristics of deviations in the predicted power output of new energy sources. This paper proposes a method for incorporating the day-ahead power forecasting of new energy sources into the power system's reserve planning. Additionally, this paper analyzes the deviations in new energy source predictions during peak load periods and determines the reasonable reserve capacity for new energy sources on a day- ahead basis, as well as the appropriate proportion for their integration into the power system on the daily basis. The research in this paper provides a reference for the power grid's capacity to accommodate new energy sources, overall power balance, and resource allocation.