An Online Estimation Approach for the Aggregate Model of District Heating Network

An accurate yet concise district heating network (DHN) model is essential for the dispatch of the integrated energy system (IES). Owing to the changes in the operation conditions, such as the topology changes and mass flow rate adjustments, the parameters of the DHN model may change during operation. Hence, the accurate online parameter estimation of the DHN is the basis of the real-time analysis and control of IES, which, however, has received little attention. To this end, this paper proposed an online parameter estimation method for the DHN aggregate model based on the recursive least square with a forgetting factor. In this method, the aggregate parameter matrixes of the DHN model are reconstructed and updated online using the latest data to track the model changes. Case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.