Cellular Operator Data Meets Counterfactual Machine Learning

Unlicensed cellular networks and spectrum-sharing standards assist operators in meeting the ever-increasing demand for mobile data. However, several incumbents are already operational in these frequencies, rendering the wireless environment extremely dynamic and unpredictable. The challenges associated with unlicensed Licensed Assisted Access (LAA) operations in the 5 GHz band and New Radio in Unlicensed (NR-U) in the 6 GHz band are best addressed through a data-driven approach. This requires operator data from current cellular deployments. Further, from an operator’s perspective, the precision and reliability of predictive models must be analyzed before deployment. Counterfactual machine learning is ideal for quantifying causal impact in a dynamic, unlicensed cellular environment. However, the literature lacks a framework that combines data-driven solutions, counterfactual analysis, and conventional optimization. This work contributes a dataset from the LAA networks of three major cellular operators in Chicago consisting of 15 features and 9676 samples. Additionally, it proposes a framework for analyzing the performance of unlicensed networks that leverages machine learning for predictive modeling, employs counterfactual analysis for model explainability and network performance enhancement, and utilizes optimization for validation. We show that operator data is necessary to build reliable prediction models for network throughput, and signal strength, among others. Further, the impact of network parameters is shown to differ in unlicensed and licensed cellular network models. Next, a counterfactual machine learning framework is proposed to explain and analyze the predictive models. The framework proposes counterfactual policies to enhance unlicensed cellular network performance. Finally, we validate the suggested counterfactual policies through joint network optimization.