Prediction of Medical Health Human Resources in Changchun City Based on Grey Model

Objective: To predict and analyze the change trend of health human resources in Changchun City during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, so as to provide scientific and reasonable data support for macro policy formulation, and also provide reference for other regions of Jilin Province. Methods: According to the’ Changchun Statistical Yearbook’ and’ Jilin Statistical Yearbook’ from 2018 to 2021, the relevant data of health human resources were selected as the prediction index, and the GM (1,1) prediction model was constructed to predict the change trend of its composition. Results: It is estimated that by 2025, there will be 104,521 health technicians, 60,804 practicing (assistant) physicians, and 87,704 registered nurses in the city. Conclusion: Changchun has abundant health human resources, which can meet the requirements of health planning in Jilin Province. However, there is a certain gap between the doctor-nurse ratio and the national standard. The construction of nursing talent team still needs to be strengthened. In addition, we should pay attention to the guarantee system of medical and health personnel and the cultivation of high-quality medical education.