Forecasting Digestive System Diseases in Surabaya Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

One of the most common types of diseases in Surabaya, Indonesia, is digestive system disease. In 2022, cases of digestive system diseases significantly increased, necessitating the Surabaya Health Service to effectively control the rising number of cases. Therefore, there is a need for innovation in forecasting technology to predict the future increase in disease cases. The number of digestive system disease cases in the five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia, during 2022 was used to predict the number of cases for the next three months using the ARIMA method. The model obtained for implementation on actual data showed a fairly good MAPE value (close to 0) for all five regions. The RMSE value indicates a difference from 0, but it is not excessively high. The forecasting results for the next three-month period, January, February, and March 2023, show an increase in each region, but not significantly.