End-of-Life Reliability Predictions for Compressors Along the Service Life

It is rare to find field data tracking for components over decades to compare and validate if their end-of-life reliability predictions at various time points during product life were accurate. This compressor reliability study was motivated by the need to understand the status quo reliability of a fielded compressor population made of distinct brands following a series of field failure events. Field reliability was first studied at the time when the compressor fleet was in service for 8 years. This age of fleet also happened to be its approximate mid-life. The expected design life as part of the reliability requirement provided to compressor suppliers was 15 years. After evaluating the 8 years of reliability data for current reliability status, 15th year reliability was predicted by extrapolation. The motivation behind this 15th year reliability prediction was to understand if the end-of-life compressor reliability goal is still achievable. Then, after passing another 7 years from the first analysis, the actual 15-year design life was reached. Finally, end-of-life reliability analysis of the same fleet of compressors was performed using the 15 years of service life data. This analysis was then compared with the 15th year predictions performed 7 years ago using the 8-year field failure data set.