Probability of Disposal Demystified

With the ongoing proliferation of satellites deployed within Low Earth Orbits (LEO) and eventually Medium Earth Orbits (MEO), the need to ensure that these space assets are properly disposed of after their missions are completed, or failures render them inoperable, is paramount. OneWeb, SpaceX and Amazon (just to name a few) are among those pursuing large LEO constellations potentially composed collectively of 16,000 new satellites with an additional three times that number being proposed for future deployments [1]. The LEO and MEO environments are becoming congested and good stewardship necessitates that a probability of disposal analysis be included within a vehicle's design trade space.