Simulation Technology of Medium and Long-Term Output Curve of Wind Power Based on Markov Model

The seasonal characteristics and weather characteristics of wind power output time series are comprehensively considered, and an improved Markov chain model is constructed to better reflect wind power output characteristics. In the improved model, the data fragments are classified and several state transition matrices are generated. Based on the actual output data of a wind farm in Yunnan Province, the simulation results show that compared with the original Markov chain model, the improved model has higher precision in wind power output simulation. The probability distribution of the simulated wind power output curve is closer to the measured data. The research results are of great significance for the planning and operation of wind power grid-connected systems.