Vessel Collision Risk in Meeting Area Based on Traffic Conflict Technique

In order to reduce the collision risk of mega-ships and improve the navigation safety in meeting area, an approach for evaluating the collision risk of large vessels in the vessel meeting area is proposed. This proposal is based on vessel traffic conflict technique, and the rationality of the expansion of the meeting area is evaluated. In accordance with the AIS data, the traffic flow and vessel traffic conflict situation in the vessel meeting area are analyzed. The traffic conflict rate and traffic conflict points should be taken as the evaluation index of the collision risk in the vessel meeting area. The anchorage near the meeting area should be considered as well. Using K-Modes clustering and traffic hub complexity index is to evaluate the collision risk of the vessel meeting area. Taking Zhujiang River estuary and Hong Kong port water area as examples, the paper puts forward suggestions for modification of the vessel meeting area so as to meet actual demands of Zhujiang River estuary for large vessels meeting with the insufficient capacity situation. This paper not only make some suggestions, but also provides a reference for channel design and scientific formulation of vessel traffic management measures.