Counterfactual Negative Outcome Control for Required Navigation Performance

Output feedback control in flight relies on robust guidance commands. However, inevitable command deviations can result in excessive and adverse servo adjustments of the aircraft control surfaces. This paper presents a counterfactual negative outcome control (CNOC) method to restrain lateral and vertical errors for required navigation performance (RNP). Here the counterfactual responses are inferred to minimize the confounding effects between successive outcomes. Consequently, command and control with maximal causal effects between inputs and outputs can be applied to start or resume the appropriate aircraft servo actuators. Notably, conditioned flight control can reduce excessive and adverse servo actuation. Simulation results on guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) establish that the CNOC method permits a reduction in the loss probability of RNP capability on accuracy, integrity, and continuity.