Research on Data Prediction Based on ARIMA and Grey Models: A Case Study of Problem E in the 2022 Asia Pacific Mathematical Contest in Modeling for University Students

This paper aims to employ scientific exploration methods, utilizing SPSS software, to deeply investigate data development trends and future scenarios. Starting from the data provided by the 2022 Asia Pacific Mathematical Contest in Modeling for University Students (APMCM), this study utilizes SPSS as a tool to perform time series analysis, establish ARIMA and Grey models, and predict future nuclear weapon quantities. Furthermore, the potential threat posed by nuclear weapons to the Earth is evaluated. Based on the research findings, recommendations are proposed to limit the number of nuclear warheads, offering a scientific foundation for fostering a harmonious and peaceful future for the international community.