Stochastic Economic Power Dispatch Problem Based on ARMA-Analogs Wind Power Scenarios

Wind power scenarios generated by an ARMA-analog model are incorporated into an economic dispatch framework for the power grid. The proposed model mixes a day-ahead point forecast generated by an ARMA model with the analog method to develop a set of wind power scenarios. Furthermore, a stochastic dispatch model to incorporate wind power scenarios is proposed. Consequently, system-wide cost-effective power dispatch is achieved. We demonstrate that the stochastic formulation with ARMA-analog wind power scenarios reduces costs concerning a deterministic model. The stochastic formulation is assessed and implemented using Julia programming on a modified IEEE 24-bus system.