A study on the fuzzy ELDC of composite power system based on probabilistic and fuzzy set theories

This paper illustrates a new fuzzy effective load model for probabilistic and fuzzy production cost simulation of the load point of the composite power system. A model for reliability evaluation of transmission system using fuzzy set theory is proposed for considering the flexibility or ambiguity of capacity limitation and over load of transmission lines which is subjective matter characteristics. The conventional probabilistic approach was also used to model the uncertainties related with the objective matters for forced outage rates of generators and transmission lines in the new model. The methodology is formulated in order to consider the flexibility or ambiguity of load forecasting as well as capacity limitation and over load of transmission lines. It is expected that the fuzzy CMELDC (composite power system effective load duration curve) proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The characteristics of this new model are illustrated by some case studies of very simple test system.