PPAF: A Plastics Production and Accumulation Forecast Model Based on Entropy Weighting for Reducing Global Plastic Waste

With the progression of global productivity, the production of plastic waste is rising, which poses a significant environmental threat. To alleviate this problem, our team first predicted the production scale of plastic waste in a specific timeframe by simulating a plastic production model. The model would effectively help predict the total accumulation of single-use plastic waste in a given period based on past data such as annual plastic production, recycling rates, incineration rates, and plastic product life distribution in various countries. We then designed a plastic waste reduction model to simulate the extent of plastic waste reduction under four solutions. To monitor the reduction of total plastic waste, we employed a dynamic programming approach to adjust the intensity parameters of the four solutions to minimize the overall implementation effort. Finally, relying on the weighted score calculation based on the entropy weight method, we analyzed the impact of implementing optimal solutions on the social development of different countries and their share in dealing with the single-use plastic waste crisis.