A Method for Balance Analysis of High-proportion Renewable Power System

Large amount of renewable integrated into grid results in challenges analyzing supply-demand balance across multiple timeframes. This paper establishes a model based on scenario forecasting, which predicts electricity and power shortage of sending provinces with high-proportion renewables in typical and extreme situations of monthly, weekly, and hourly basis, and also quantifies influencing factors. The result indicates that the most significant deficits occurs in the winter, particularly December, when the heating season coincides with peak-load and dry season for hydropower. Meanwhile, the imbalance in sending province is directly caused by annual send-out electricity and its way of breakdown. Furthermore, the regulation of storage and demand response can mitigate shortage during evening peak. The method proposed by this paper get verified by several cases.