Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Civil Aviation: Accessing the Temporal Recovery

This paper attempts to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian airlines and mitigate the possible way outs to help the aviation sector recover the fall in the passenger demand. This study uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to forecast air passenger and freight demand for the Indian aviation industry. Findings suggested that ARIMA, is appropriate for short-term forecasting of all four commercial aviation sectors (international passengers, international freight, domestic passengers, and domestic freight). A comprehensive assessment of Indian aviation for immediate pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19 is made for the Indian domestic aviation sector. Since the Indian aviation business is susceptible to similar losses due to its vulnerability to cyclical economic disruptions such as fuel price increases, inflation, currency devaluation, and demand shocks, this study will help in knowing the recovery of the aviation market and the way outs to deal with demand and supply for other future uncertainties.