Experience in Predicting the Intensity of Sea Traffic Based on the Analysis of Online Nautical Charts

The article discusses the results of forecasting time series compiled based on the number of ships that passed through the Kerch Strait from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, as well as from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea in one hour in the period from February 14 to 28, 2022. The information needed to compile the time series under discussion was extracted automatically using a software tool developed by the authors from publicly available online nautical charts posted on the Internet. It is demonstrated that the prediction accuracy based on the integration of formal time series forecasting methods and the method Data Assimilation turns out to be higher than a similar value in the case of forecasting based on an AR-model of a time series of any order.