Biomathematical Modeling and Phenology in Sweet Cherry: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change

Chile is one of the leading producers of sweet cherries worldwide, and the fruit sector is currently facing the challenge of adapting to climate changes. In the Maule region, which accounts for 43% of national sweet cherry exports, innovative adaptation strategies are needed. Therefore, this study aims to digitize the phenology models of sweet cherries in the Maule region, Chile. Using field data, the construction and validation of these models are conducted. The approach relies on monomolecular biomathematical models, which are calibrated and validated using observations collected over multiple seasons (2017/2018, 2018/2019, 2019/2020, and 2020/2021). The focus is on eight sweet cherry varieties: Sam, Lapins, Rainier, Royal D, Santina, Regina, Kordia, and Sweet Heart. By digitizing the phenology models, the developmental rates for each variety are estimated, enabling the prediction of the budburst start date for each of them. This study on the digitization of sweet cherry phenology models not only contributes significant advances in optimizing the planning and management of the cherry season in the Maule region, Chile but also plays a crucial role in the education and training of 21st-century agronomists. Furthermore, the digitized phenology models will be incorporated into an RShiny application program, making them easily accessible through digital platforms. This will enhance their utility for training and scientific research purposes.