Application of Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos in the Analysis of Power System Adequacy

A new method for analysis of power system adequacy is proposed. It belongs to the group of point estimation methods and it is based on arbitrary polynomial chaos. Also the modification of another efficient point estimation method (Hong scheme) was proposed. Calculation time for both methods is significantly lower than that of the benchmark Monte Carlo method with the same accuracy. However, there are still limitations to these methods, connected with limited amount of input variables and possibly inaccurate consideration of rare events. Methods were tested on the 5-bus PJM test system using MATLAB and MATPOWER software.