The Impacts of the Uncertainty in Demand Growth and Load Models on Distribution Network Operation

The continuous growth of population and the inclusion of Low Carbon Technologies (LCTs) increase the electrical demand to levels never seen before. Furthermore, these LCTs pose further risks with uncertainty in load models that will increase the strain on the power system. This paper presents an analysis of the steady-state behaviour of a real Distribution Network (DN) through Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) simulations. The results were obtained through case studies designed to evaluate the impact of increasing active load demand and of uncertain, changing load models on the performance of the power system, demonstrating the network’s capability against the increasing demand and uncertainty. The study is performed through Monte Carlo-based load flow simulations and by observing the operation of the network under steady-state conditions in terms of bus voltages, line loadings, and active power line losses. The results show that the PLF provides assurance of the accuracy of deterministic load flow.