Evaluation of Photovoltaic Short-term Forecast Benefits for Isolated System Operation

This paper deals with the energy management control using an advanced short-term PV forecast solution for a PV-ESSdiesel hybrid off-grid microgrid. Analysis by simulation addressing a technical comparison between such solution and other forecast options, such as persistence or perfect forecast, is performed, in order to evaluate potential gains both in storage sizing and fuel consumption. Further than a case study, the work offers a generic simulation framework allowing other microgrid simulations, both grid-tied and off-grid, as the plant model and the control system are structured under a general approach, facilitating the system modeling and simulation.