A Hybrid System Dynamics/Input-Output Model for Studying the Impact of Transportation Delays on the Resiliency of National Supply Chains

In today’s globally interconnected economy, transportation delays that impact a specific industry’s supply chain can quickly propagate to other industries, dramatically impacting inventory levels and economic production on the local, state, national, and global levels. This research proposes a hybrid System Dynamics and Input-Output simulation model that represents the impact of transportation delays on the flow of goods across industries and between geographic regions. The model is applied to a case study involving the port of Los Angeles to quantify the direct and indirect effects of a 30- and 60-day delay in container movement on gross output across the 55 major industries in the United States. The capability to predict the scope and scale of the economic impact resulting from various transportation delays provides decision makers the opportunity to conduct preliminary what-if analyses which can support the development of potential mitigation strategies before the actual shock occurs.