Provincial multistage power expansion planning toward coal and renewables positioning

In the context of carbon neutrality, China's power system is accelerating its transition from a coal-based to a renewable-based system, and the positioning and synergies between coal and renewables still need to be comprehensively analyzed in the transition process. This paper proposes a framework of a provincial multistage power expansion planning model to simulate the power supply planning from 2025 to 2050 to answer the questions of positioning and synergy between coal and new energy. The proposed framework adopts a combination of macro and micro approaches, including macro policies, such as carbon emissions and energy consumption, and micro perspectives, such as modeling 16 power generation types. The power planning results and the decommissioning transition process of coal-based thermal power units and coal-based thermal power units with carbon capture, utilization and storage technology are given from 2025 to 2050 in a 5-year phase. Based on the power planning results, an accurate multistage assessment of levelized cost of energy and its component analysis are realized. The case study verifies the validity and accuracy of the proposed framework.