Utilizing the FMEA RPN Framework in Quantifying Supply Chain Risks of High Severity and Low Probability Events: Pandemics and Geopolitical Conflicts - An In-depth Analysis

Supply chains are facing disruptions in succession, and recovery remains a challenge. Disruptions challenge supply chain managers to find solutions for a faster recovery. However, building supply chain resiliency may lead to foregoing some globalization cost-benefits. While professionals and academicians research this conundrum, it's evident that reactive approaches do not support sustenance and present a unique challenge with each disruption. Therefore, it becomes significant to predict risk probabilities and severity and act to mitigate the risks strategically. It also calls for timely decision-making. This paper identifies the need for a proactive approach to predicting risks and detecting trigger points for well-timed decision-making. The paper recommends the existing frameworks of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Risk Priority Number (RPN), Uppsala model, and Multicriteria Decision Making (MDM) for quantifying and reducing the risk and improving resiliency. The FMEA model helps assess and prioritize risks, while the Uppsala model guides commitment based on changes in risk. MDM acknowledges that other criteria may also be important in strategic decision-making beyond just risk.