Study of Covid-19 Spread Prediction in Indonesia using Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Model

COVID-19 is a new virus that was shown at the end of the year 2019 until now. This study proposes a new model to predict the spreading of COVID-19 using the Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (HN-FIS) in the next three months. The proposed model combines the Neural Network (NN) and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). In the previous study, HN-FIS successfully predicted the flood disaster with more than 90% accuracy. Data collected for COVID-19 prediction come from the National database and data from a social media communication. In this study, the prediction of the spreading of COVID-19 employs four parameters: the number of populations, incubation period, environmental factors, and age. The case study took place in West Java Province, Indonesia. We performed three models to determine the best model fit: NN, FIS, and HN-FIS. The results of this study present a set of recommendations models for the people still fighting to face the COVID-19 pandemic, and the people can avoid the places with a higher spreading of COVID-19.