Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Model Divided by Sector in Vietnam Based on Electricity Saving Variables and Energy Efficiency Index

The electricity sector is among the Vietnamese economy's significant and strategic. The Vietnamese Prime Minister Directive for enhancing electricity savings from 2020 through 2025 (Directive 20) seeks at least a 2% annual improvement in the energy efficiency of total electricity consumption. To achieve this goal, the Prime Minister requests ministries, ministerial-level agencies, government agencies, People's Committees of provinces and central cities, enterprises, and mass-social organizations to implement electricity savings from 5 following sources: offices, public lighting, advertising lighting, and outdoor decoration, households, commercial and service and manufacturing enterprises. To meet the annual saving targets of at least 5% from office buildings, 20% from public lighting, advertisement, and decoration, and 2% of electricity consumption per product unit by key energy users. Using the Vietnam electricity sector as a case study, this study aims to provide the energy efficiency index (ODEX) and the amount of electricity savings to provide electricity demand forecast models for three major sectors during the energy transition period. The results of the forecasting model show that R-squared reaches 0.99 with high accuracy with MAPE error index of 0.21%, 0.81%, and 0.69% for Industry and Construction; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Trading and Services, respectively.