Photovoltaic Generation Prediction Under Hurricane Conditions Based on a Comprehensive Quantitative Model

Predicting photovoltaic (PV) generation under extreme disasters, such as hurricanes, presents a significant challenge for county-level new distribution systems that heavily rely on PV as their primary power source. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a comprehensive quantitative model for predicting PV generation during hurricanes. The approach begins by collecting and merging historical data on solar irradiance in the PV region with information on past hurricane events. Subsequently, the correlation between solar irradiance intensity and hurricane factors is analyzed using the coefficient of determination. The findings highlight the crucial roles played by hurricane intensity and the distance from the hurricane center in determining solar irradiance intensity. To predict the attenuation of PV generation, a hybrid effect linear regression model is developed, incorporating these two influential factors. The analysis reveals a significant attenuation in PV generation as the hurricane intensity increases or the distance from the hurricane center decreases. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through simulation analysis conducted under hurricane conditions.