Prediction of Controller Human Error Probability in Flight Conflict Resolution Based on THERP-HCR

THERP method has the functions of qualitative and quantitative analysis. It can model the conflict resolution process of controllers and roughly predict the probability of human misbehavior. However, THERP method does not consider the influence of time variables on conflict resolution, which has the defects of incomplete qualitative analysis and large quantitative analysis error. Therefore, combined with the analysis ability of HCR model to unresponsive error behavior, the defects in THERP method are corrected. Through the analysis of a typical case of controller's failure in conflict resolution, it can be found that the method can carry out more detailed analysis, and the formed data is more instructive for the formulation of risk control measures.