Enhancing Timely Graduations: An Explainable AI Approach to Predict Academic Risks in South African Students

With rising dropout rates and extended degree completion times in South African institutions, there's a pressing need to better understand and address the hurdles faced by students during their academic journey. This research harnesses the power of explainable AI to predict and classify students based on their likelihood of not completing their degrees on time. Utilizing synthetic data generated via a Bayesian network, we used predictive models that categorize students into four distinct risk profiles. This clarity in prediction not only illuminates the underlying causes of academic delays but also empowers faculty, advisors, and student support services with actionable insights. The goal of this research is to facilitate timely interventions, tailored support, and seamless transitions for students transferring between universities, ensuring more students can realize their academic aspirations within expected time frames.