Explainability of Leverage Points Exploration for Customer Churn Prediction

Customer churn is a most crucial challenge faced by various industries, especially for the telecommunications sector since it causes over 5 - 6 times cost to keep customers. Thus, customer churn prediction has experienced substantial expansion. While a lot of prediction models are becoming increasingly accurate, the capability to interpret these models and perform causal analysis has become a new challenge. Identifying the key reasons or patterns that truly influence customer churn is vital for enabling industries to make significant improvements. This study then introduced a comprehensive framework. That integrates causal graphs and explainable models such as SHAP and Shapley flow, and concepts from system dynamics to explore customer churn patterns and leverage points. Experimental results indicates that the designed model is more explainable and interpretable to explore the customer behaviors for customer churn prediction.